Above is a military aide carrying America's nuclear football. It's a specially designed briefcase that accompanies the US President at all times, both inside and outside the White House. American Vice Presidents also have an accompanying backup nuclear football in case the President is incapacitated.
The nuclear football, officially known as the Presidential Emergency Satchel (it's a shame it's not called the Presidential Incident Satchel!), contains a set of codes that the American President has to read out aloud to authenticate his identity to military authorities, a list of plans for pre-emptive and retaliatory nuclear strikes, a list of sites where he can safely stay during a nuclear conflict, and details on how he can use the Emergency Alert System, a national system allowing him to alert Americans to a possible nuclear war.
The history of America's nuclear football can be traced back to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.
Moran Cerf, a neuroscientist based at New York's Columbia University, is a prominent critic of the protocols governing the use of American nuclear weapons. His criticisms are numerous, and all are dismissed by the US military authorities. Moran Cerf's main criticism is that a human isn't a rational actor particularly in times of emergency. Using neuroscience, he argues that the American President needs more time than what's allowed before deciding to use nuclear weapons and, moreover, the decision should be a collective and not an individual decision.
I think it's madness that a decision to launch nuclear weapons, both as a defensive and an offensive strike, is left to the judgement and possibly a misjudgement of one person. But the possession of nuclear weapons is based on the MAD (mutually assured destruction) doctrine.
Yesterday at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting held in Lima, Peru, the US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that human intelligence and not artificial intelligence (AI) should be used to make decisions over the use of nuclear weapons.
In a recent online article published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Zachary Kallenborn, a war expert based at Washington DC's Center for Strategic and International Studies, recounted the event that if AI controlled nuclear weapons in the early 1980s then there would have been a nuclear war between America and the Soviet Union.
In 1983, the Soviet Air Defence Forces' Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov was monitoring nuclear early warning systems. A computer alerted him with "the highest confidence" that America had launched several nuclear weapons against the Soviet Union. Stanislav Petrov did nothing because he thought that America would launch more than a handful of nuclear weapons in a first strike, he didn't trust the new detection system, and he didn't have any corroborative evidence. Petrov was right, and the computer was wrong. It turned out that the computerised early warning system had mistaken the sun's reflections off the clouds for nuclear missiles.
Zacchary Kallenborn is a staunch opponent of allowing AI to control the use of nuclear weapons because of the high risk of error in collecting and analysing masses of information. It was a mad world then and unfortunately it's still a mad world today!
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Feel we are living in dangerous times. Darn should have built that underground shelter and stocked up on RPGs
Where live, though isolated, would in all probability die in nuclear blast due to proximity to Barksdale Air Force Base. Interesting item watched recently on described how almost all rivers and bodies of fresh water would be instantly evaporated and remains would be severely contaminated
I don't think life would be worth living even if one survived an all-out nuclear war.
The mad hatter is going to look sane compared to where the states is heading.
Mad Hatter for President, I say!
@talk6s I wish what is happening isn't true. I'm having problems processing what's happening.
@talk6s Unfortunately there was no happy ending in those interwar years. We're just re-living them - economic/financial shocks; making countries great again; trade wars; nationalist, populist, authoritarian and fascist politics; attacks on the 'other'; and a total disregard of democracy. I know history doesn't repeat itself but there are parallels we can learn from.
@talk6s I accept your 25 years as a time between world/regional wars, but war is almost constant. What is it with humans?!
There's no way a strike should be ordered by AI. And, for that matter, should AI be completely trusted as evidence. Human backup is also required. The crazy thing is that there is a very short window of minutes to respond.
Like you say, humans should take the ultimate decision.
@spunkycumfun
Why currently it doesn’t comfort me having certain human in control.
@EnyojLife I can think of many reasons why the thought isn't comforting!
Important article...the naughty game itself is here maybe worst or nasty who knows
I fear things will go from bad to worse.
I saw earlier where Biden and Xi agreed that AI should not be making such momentous decisions.
Here is an idea for you! With a crazy, unstable, unpredictable guy in charge of the launch decision, what country would dare risk even being perceived as stepping out of line?
That's the 'madman' theory. But the theory hasn't been tested yet. And of course the theory is self-defeating if there's more than one mad man in charge of pressing the nuclear button.
Thank heavens for comrade Petrov!
With past presidents we could rely that they would consult advisors before making such a decision. And I suspect it would be the same with 45/47; I just am very leery of who he's surrounding himself with.
Stanislav Petrov needs to take a bow.
I understand that American Presidents would consult and take advice, well at least I hope they would. Moran Cerf's position is that at least two people need to authorise a decision to let loose nuclear missiles.
I don't know the protocols in Russia, I suspect only one person is needed there given Putin's threats in Ukraine.
And I don't know what the protocols are in China, Britain and France or maybe Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea and even South Africa and Iran.
Advisers are important, as you say.
@spunkycumfun
@smartasswoman
What relief when we see advisers that orange menace have this time 😱😱😱
@EnyojLife Trump's picks for his administration are just scary. He's chosen nobody to stand up to him; it's all about loyalty. Not even in interwar Germany did that happen!
@spunkycumfun
Interwar German ended with failed painter bringing havoc on whole world. Is there any hope that it will be better this time.
At least then Churchill was alive and GB was still imperium.
@EnyojLife My hope is diminishing fast.
@spunkycumfun
Mine too
@EnyojLife Trump's proposed nominations, particularly of Kennedy, Hegseth, Wright and Gaetz, aren't at all comforting.
@spunkycumfun
Words are your domain but if I might suggest: scary, terrifying, petrifying, paralyzing, mind blowing or just plain crazy sociopathic criminals.
@EnyojLife Your words are perfect.
Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)
60 years after movie we are closer than ever
I was thinking about this movie as I was reading the post. Didn’t the crazy advisor have plans for a nuclear war bunker stocked with beautiful women to perpetuate the human race? I’m sure orange guy would be on board with that.
For my sins, I haven't watched that film. It's on my to-see list.
@smartasswoman
As I remember in order to speed up repopulation of earth, there should be 10 women for each man and women should be young so that they could have many children. Of course that’s logical and very convenient. 😁.
Certain CEO is already working on repopulation and I’m sure new AG will have input on his preferred (under) age.
I’m getting sick 🤢
@spunkycumfun
First time I watched it in mid seventies. I was teenager and got it as hilarious comedy with many really memorable scenes that are still vivid in my memory.
Last time I watched it when W was president. I couldn’t help but laugh but there was dark underlying there. First how close humanity was to something like that in 60s or maybe 70s and also that we could get close to it again. It was age of war on terror.
It’s hard to believe that 60 years after movie could be relevant again. That 60 years of “progress” could be undone by new set of lunatics
@EnyojLife I may have a quiet night in and watch the Dr. Strangelove, 2001: A Space Odyssey and !984 films, I should sleep well after that viewing!
@spunkycumfun maybe just Dr. Strangelove. It’s a true classic, you really have to see it!
@spunkycumfun
2001 is masterpiece apart from others. The first 5 minutes or so are truly unforgettable. It has everything, music, camera, message. It’s the longest, most daring, jump from one scene to another. Tens of thousands of years if not hundreds of thousands. And it makes sense.
As you might guess I really love 2001. And even it’s is AI considered AI failure the cause of failure is on humans that have power but not understanding.
@spunkycumfun
It’s 3 minutes worth of watching if you haven’t seen it
@smartasswoman Dr. Strangelove has now moved to the very top of my must-watch list.
@EnyojLife I've not watched 2001: A Space Odyssey, so thanks for the clip. I'm not normally into sci-fi but I'm going to make an exception and watch this film.
@talk6s
Exactly my sentiment.
Dissolution of SSSR and Warsaw Pact looked like real change and first step toward brighter world. And now look at Poland, Hungry even former east Germany. All nostalgic for firm hand and less freedom. And even democracies are inclining to authoritarian regimes. All over world.
Somehow shit started with war in former Yugoslavia and inability or no desire to stop it
And yes movie is brilliant. Masterpiece
@talk6s I'm definitely going to watch the film over the Xmas period to cheer me up!
Certain President's should not have the nuclear codes as one of our Generals said previously that the incoming President should definitely NOT have these codes. God forbid if someone pisses him off and he decides to use it. I thing the Pentagon should keep this brief case as they are more proficient in how it should be used!! AI should have absolutely nothing to do with an NUCLEAR Codes ever!!
I hope your enjoying a relaxing Sunday..
Moran Cerf was particularly concerned about POTUS 45 and now-to-be 47 having the sole decision about America using nuclear weapons given his use of unpredictable tactics based on the 'madman theory' of foreign policy. I guess the choice could be AI or POTUS 47. I'm torn on that choice!
Terrible possibilities with this incoming set of lunatics 😱
Humanity hangs by a very thin thread, and it’s just one single thread: one mistake, just one, and it's over for everyone forever. Einstein, who knew a thing or two about the nuclear topic, said something like if there was a Third World War, the Fourth would be fought with stones and sticks. It’s shameful and frightening to see how today some people flirt with the possibility of using 'small' nuclear weapons : i.e. tactical ones, that is, fission not fusion, and more and more countries want to have them for different excuses. As for the use of AI, no matter what they say, sooner rather than later it will intervene in decisions about whether to end the world or not, although in the end, the red button will be pressed... for now, by the sweaty hand of a terrified human facing a horrible future. Anyway, a very interesting post, thanks S I agree with the name Piss being better
The Reagan-Gorbachev era of multilateral nuclear disarmament seems like dream years now.
@CarriedBack Indeed! And it's frightening, but the situation is even worse because the thread isn't made of a single orange fiber. Instead, it's composed of several others of different colors knotted one after the other, and if just one of those breaks... c'est fini.